2012 Veikkausliiga in numbers - HJK and JJK

I don't claim to have any expertise in using graphs, spreadsheets and tables, but comparing this season's league to 2011, some factors were crying out for some graphs and illustrations. They're not particularly scientific, and the analysis around them is simple. But it should get you thinking. I was originally planning on doing one piece covering the whole league, but have only covered HJK and JJK so far due to getting a bit carried away.

HJK - the closing gap

In 2011, HJK won the title with a huge gap of 24 points. They won 16 out of 17 home games (the other was a goalless draw with third placed JJK), and won ten games in a row between May and July. 2012 was a different story. The winning margin of six points was as much down to runners-up Inter only winning 11 points in the final 12 games, while HJK's longest winning run was five matches. They didn't drop points at home, but drew five matches.

The top three teams (HJK, Inter, JJK) in 2011

The top three teams (HJK, Inter, TPS) in 2012

More informed people have gone into why the gap has closed, and the fact that HJK have changed coach for 2013 is a clear sign, despite the angle that they want to do better in Europe. The fact is that in the final few games, HJK's experience and deeper squad took them over the line, while the Turku sides will rue on a missed opportunity.

From a purely numbers angle, HJK scored 23 fewer goals in 2012, and conceded 10 more; with goal difference of a huge +63 in 2011 became +30 in 2012. The emergence of Joel Pohjanpalo provided a goal threat after the departures of Teemu Pukki and Jari Litmanen (although he only scored one league goal in 2011), but he looks set to move to Germany. Mikael Forssell has re-signed for 2013 on huge wages, so a lot will be expected of him.

It's also an interesting comparison to look at HJK's performances against individual teams. (To be consistent, I've not included 2011 results against RoPS or 2012 results against Lahti). 2012 HJK only improved against TPS and JJK, whereas in 2011, they did better in matches versus Inter, MYPA, Honka, VPS, Jaro and Haka.

HJK results against individual teams from 2011 and 2012

I'll come onto JJK shortly, which may give credence to the increase in points there. TPS's points total however improved in 2012, albeit by four points. HJK achieved maximum points (three wins) in 2011 against MYPA, VPS, KuPS and Haka. In 2012 it was only JJK and KuPS. The league structure plays a part, in that the third games are spread so that (in HJK's case having finished in the top half in 2010) HJK had six home games and five away for weeks 23-33. 

But looking closer, two of the MYPA and Haka matches in 2011 were away. In 2012, they played JJK away twice. In August 2012, Egan Richardson wrote in Nordic Football News about the current fixture system favouring HJK. They certainly benefitted that they played their rivals at home, while Inter v TPS could easily be seen as an away tie. So while it benefits HJK by weakening their rivals, they took less advantage than they did in 2011.

(* In 2011, HJK took 9 points against RoPS, and 6 points against Lahti)

JJK - falling back

2011 bronze medallists JJK haven't had as long or rich as history as some of their rivals. In their current form, they've only existed since 1992 (a merger between JYP-77 and JyPK), and have only played in the top division since 2009. After finishing 13th in their first two seasons (the league had 14 teams then, before the league was re-structured after Oulu and Tampere were removed), they finished an incredible third place, and qualified for Europe for the first time.

But fourteen points were dropped between 2011 and 2012. The biggest changes were between matches against MYPA (three points fewer in 2012), VPS (four points fewer) and relegated Haka (six points fewer). The only team they improved against was TPS (one point more than 2011). 

JJK results against individual teams from 2011 and 2012

(* In 2011, JJK took 7 points against RoPS, and 6 points against Lahti)

For a team finishing third one year, to only finishing eight points off the bottom the following year is disappointing. It could be argued that they have returned to their natural level, and that they over-achieved in 2011. Only Tamás Gruborovics (12 goals), Mikko Innanen and Babatunde Wusu reached double figures in league goals (10 each). Gruborovics has been on trial at Dutch side Willem II, so seems likely to be joining the exodus from the Veikkausliiga.

The defence also performed poorly, conceding 48 goals in 2011, and 65 in 2012 (slightly warped by conceding six on the final day to HJK), keeping just five clean sheets. They even conceded five goals to KuPS, not something to brag about. That they let in three goals on seven occasions is very concerning. The chart below shows the frequency of goals conceded. A median average of just under 2 goals a game is underlined here.

Their short spell in the Europa League (they were knocked out in the second qualifying round by Zeta of Montenegro) didn't directly impact on results, as they won 7 out of 12 points in games after European ties. It's easy to speculate that their minds were elsewhere, a charge that could also be thrown at KuPS. They didn't pull up any trees in the competition, but will be looking for more.

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Part two will follow, looking at Lahti's impressive late season form, and the battle to avoid relegation (which will also touch upon JJK).