What next for Finland?

2018 World Cup qualifying is over for Finland. Well, it's been over for months. Monday night saw the final match in group I, in Turku against an also-eliminated Turkey. It turned out to be an entertaining 2-2, but ultimately counts for little other than FIFA ranking points and cementing Finland's place in division C in the upcoming Nations League.

Like the qualifying campaign for the 2016 European Championships, the best sequence of results was saved for the end, when the pressure was ultimately off. Finishing with two wins and two draws has echoes of that group, but the seeds of failure were sown much earlier.

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The World Cup group was drawn in 2015, when Finland were at their lowest ebb after the sacking of Mixu Paatelainen. Placed in the fifth seeding pot due to a poor FIFA ranking, the Finns were drawn in a tough group with Iceland, Croatia, Turkey and Ukraine, before being joined later by Kosovo. Fifth place was expected, and achieved.

After Markku Kanerva steadied the ship post-Mixu, the Finnish FA (Palloliitto) held an open search for his successor. Applicants included Stuart Pearce and former Gibraltar boss Allen Bula; but the selection panel of the late FA chairman Pertti Alaja, secretary Marco Casagrande and advisor Jari Litmanen went for Swede Hans Backe - a manager who had mostly worked in Scandinavia, with diverse spells at Notts County and New York Red Bulls...

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Backe's reign was an unmitigated disaster. No wins, a complete lack of vision and an even lower FIFA ranking, which ended up outside the top 100. The fixture choices seemed baffling, taking prestige batterings by Germany, Poland and Italy over more productive games. Probably not Backe's fault, but still.

Hans Backe's record as Finland manager:
Played 11
Won 0
Drawn 2
Lost 9
Goals for 4
Goals against 22#huuhkajat

— Escape To Suomi (@EscapeToSuomi) December 11, 2016

Kanerva again took the reins, this time on a permanent basis. Despite a friendly win over Morocco, other results stayed poor. Injuries played their part, Moisander and Sparv were long-term absentees, while Joel Pohjanpalo and Eero Markkanen struggled to get minutes for their club sides. When he was able to field a virtually full-strength team against Iceland, they won 1-0 and followed that with a win over Kosovo and score draws against Croatia and Turkey.

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It's perhaps harsh to compare Kanerva with England's Gareth Southgate - promoted after a sacking, more experience of coaching or working with youngsters. Barring a catastrophe or a complete change of heart at the top of Palloliitto, Markku will be in charge when the Nations League kicks off in 2018 and probably the Euro 2020 qualifying in 2019. Are there any obvious Finnish contenders to replace him? Simo Valakari is now in Norway, Lehkosuo has won a double with HJK but was lucky to keep his job a year ago.

Individually, Finland have some very good players. There is a decent spine that, when all fit, should provide plenty of tough opposition. The youngsters on the fringes of the side have shown that they can add dynamism and pace. Players like Simon Skrabb, Fredrik Jensen, Pyry Soiri and Sauli Väisänen show promise and could become established internationals in the coming years. Alex Ring has come on leaps and bounds at New York City FC, Paulus Arajuuri looked good in the qualifiers and Lukas Hradecky has a fine record in the Bundesliga.

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Will Finland qualify for a major tournament any time soon? Well the 24 team Euros and the wildcard spots from the Nations League represent the best chance. It'll need a favourable draw and good luck with player fitness and form, but recent results should enable a better seeding.

It's easy to get carried away after such a long time of scraps and defeats. It's a time for reflection and building for 2020.

Oi Suomi on.

Top five - Huuhkajat needing a transfer

Another guest post from Mark of FC Suomi - this time looking at the five Finland players in need of a transfer... Five players at various stages of their careers.

Tero Mäntylä

By the end of 2014, Tero's stock as a ball playing centre-back was on the rise and with the number of games under his belt increasing both domestically and in European competition, the then-22 year old looked like in Ludogorets and the Bulgarian top flight, he'd managed to take the road less travelled to the big time. As qualification to the Champions League became more likely, however billionaire owner Kiril Domuschiev decided to throw money into the first team. After playing his part in the qualifiers to get them to football's top table, Tero found himself at the back of the Ludogorets queue. With game time looking scarce, Tero made a bold move to mutually cancel his contract, packing his six winners medals (two leagues, two cups, two supercups) and heading north to Aalesunds. The 2015 season started well enough for Tero, playing behind then-captain Sakari Mattila; though Aalesund with a lack of firepower struggled in the league. Harald Aabrekk was sacked, Trond Fredriksen came in and Tero's role slowly diminished. and in 2017 is yet to make an appearance for the Tangoshirts. At his best, Tero was seen as an understudy to Niklas Moisander, composed and a good reader of the game who relies more on wits than strength. The promising youngster is now 26 and may be well served with a return home, to (for example) a former champion looking for composure and calm after a disruptive start to the campaign.

Mehmet Hetemaj

This may be tough for SJK fans to hear, but Mehmet Hetemaj is too good for the Veikkausliiga. Through the highs of Simo's transformative reign and the pain of the Boström experiment, Mehmet has been a constant throughout. Mehmet often provided the extra quality needed (see the Finnish Cup Final last year, and semi-final this year) to drive the team forward. His three years in Seinäjoki have taken him to the ripe old age of 29 meaning it may be unlikely there's still one big move left in him, but a good showing in European competition could be all he needs.  

Thomas Lam

Mark Warburton is a fighter. He was installed at Nottingham Forest to avoid yet another crisis, so he rallied the troops around simple, direct tactics and the kind of tackling that wouldn't be unusual outside of a nightclub at four in the morning. While it's true Thomas Lam may need to toughen up his edges, their styles in play and approach to the game may be too broad to bridge. Warburton and his assistant David Weir have no time for "luxury players", yet seem to define such players by the thickness of their accent and are no strangers to falling out with people. Throw in the inevitable chaos and confusion that is the once mighty Nottingham Forest, and you've got one of the intelligent prospects of Finnish football potentially being taught the art of the concealed Glasgow kiss, the cheeky nut-grab or the hoof. With many admirers still back in Holland and a host of Championship managers also aware of his poise and calm, it may be best for all concerned to simply agree to disagree.

Tim Väyrynen

The Veikkausliiga player of the year in 2013 left Finland with high hopes, three cup winners medals and a burgeoning international career. Since then he's had a series of impressive false starts, despite scoring on his Borussia Dortmund II, Victoria Köln and Dynamo Dresden debuts. Köln in the German regional leagues was the only place he got a run of games, scoring 11 in 15 and lifting the Middle Rhine Regional Cup at the end of the 2015 season. Other postings have seen Tim limited to sub appearances, which for a developing player with his potential was less than ideal. Like others in this list though, he is no longer a young player. Now 24 with roughly around ten appearances a season (mostly off the bench) for the past four seasons, at four different clubs, Tim needs consistency, that means games, which usually brings goals.

Berat Sadik

Two years ago, Sadik was in the prime of his career, banging goals in for a resurgent FC Thun and causing Mixu Paatelainen problems by carrying his scoring form to the national team with a goal against Northern Ireland. With plaudits from every corner, European competition beckoning and Mixu on his way out; the summer of 2015 looked decidedly rosy. Football is however complex, a mistimed tackle (in Finland's win over Greece) and misguided transfer to newly promoted Krylya Sovetov in the Russian Premier League combined to give Berat just 17 appearances in the last two years, only four of them starts and grabbing no goals. This turn of events is made all the more galling considering Krylya simply don't play with wingers or to a target man, like Berat, they were relegated last season. Still only 30 and with rumours that he is to fill an Alfredo Morelos shaped hole at HJK, Berat is still a powerful target man who has shown that a regular run of games ends up with goals. You just can't help feel that whatever agent took him to the Soviets (literal translation of "Sovetov") should pay back his 15%.

Congratulations must be lauded also on Petteri Forsell (number 1 in the draft of this article), who is clearly too good for the Polish first division and should make a real impact in Krakow next season. 

Many thanks again to Mark for this stellar contribution. You can follow his works on FC Suomi and on the Finnish Football Show podcast.