Veikkausliiga week 27 - Back to four contenders?

After the international break, league football resumed with the top and bottom places still to be decided, and this weekend there were matches between first and second, and first bottom and second bottom.

Starting at the foot of the table, the match between Haka and Jaro was never destined to be a classic - the home side hadn't won a match since mid July, while Jaro's form had picked up with draws against HJK in Helsinki, and against KuPS. In the driving rain, there was effort from both sides with no end result, although both sides had chances. Jaro coach Alexei Eremenko said he was happy with the result, but won't be happy that Maksim Vasilev was sent off in the second half for two yellow cards.

Alexei Eremenko looking casual on the sidelines

A point for both sides was made to look worse by the result in Kuopio, where KuPS defeated MYPA 2-0. KuPS were in recent danger of being sucked back into the relegation fight, falling into the usual trap of almost focusing on the Cup (they play Honka in the final next weekend). They have stretched the gap over Jaro to six points (the lead over Haka is five points) with six matches remaining. After a goalless first half, Pyry Kärkkäinen scored after 57 minutes. MYPA almost equalised through Olajide Williams, before substitute Dudu made the points safe. KuPS still have tricky fixtures remaining, visiting HJK on Wednesday, and hosting Inter Turku a week later.

Kuismala fishes the ball out of the net (photo courtesy of Futisblogi Puoliaika)

KuPS's Suomen Cup opponents Honka were in action on Saturday, hosting a TPS side who still had a realistic title chance after their dramatic comeback against Inter last week. Only 867 people turned out for the match, and again saw a goalless first half. The deciding goal was scored with a header from Dennis Okaru just after the hour, and just after Honka had been reduced to ten men after Yaghoubi was sent off for a second booking. Honka remain in eighth place, while TPS move to 47 points, and within three points of neighbours (and leaders) Inter.

Highlights of Honka 0-1 TPS

While TPS are in third place and definitely in contention, IFK Mariehamn have slowly been creeping their way back into the title race. A few weeks ago, they hit a rough patch of form, but have since won eight points from twelve with a win away to VPS, on a windy day in Vaasa. Mattias Wiklöf scored twice in each half to give IFKM a 2-0 lead, and Tommy Wirtanen scored his first goal since his move from Örebro to make it 3-0 with a good counter-attack. Prolific Jamaican striker Steven Morrissey scored a consolation goal for VPS, but the match finished 1-3. IFKM are now on 45 points, only five points behind Inter, who they visit on Octover 8th. VPS have now lost three of their last four matches, remain on 39 points, and they're unlikely to reach the Europa League as a result.

Highlights of VPS 1-3 IFK Mariehamn

JJK visited Lahti on Sunday, for a match which may have a big bearing on next season. The first half saw no goals, but a yellow card for each team, before Mikko Hauhia scored for Lahti after 54 minutes. Eero Markkenen equalised a minute later for JJK, his first goal in two months. But Lahti took the three points with a late goal by Hietanen. Lahti rise to sixth place with the win, JJK remain in ninth. With the league structure as it is, finishing in the top six brings the benefit of an extra home match next season (see this article by Egan Richardson which explains more), so the win for Lahti could mean more than just a late season boost.

Match-winner Konsta Hietanen

And so the top of the table clash. Champions HJK at home to leaders Inter Turku at a wet and windy Sonera Stadium. Inter threw away a 3-1 lead at home to TPS the previous week, ending with a 3-3 draw. HJK had won four of the last five matches. With six matches remaining afterwards, an Inter win would result in a five point lead... An HJK win would take them top for the first time in weeks.

Some wild shooting dominated the opening exchanges, but Inter scored first, a free kick launched into the box was diverted in via the head of Juho Mäkelä, although the HJK TV director went easy and awarded it to Joni Kauko... Inter then had the ball in the net again, but was correctly ruled out for offside. HJK equalised in the 61st minute, a free kick taken on the right wing flew into the goal. Rasmus Schüller was the scorer, and claimed he meant it, although he couldn't have expected Inter goalkeeper Stef Doedee to flap underneath it.

Highlights of HJK 1-1 Inter

Both sides had chances to win afterwards, but some good goalkeeping and poor finishing saw the match end 1-1. Inter are on 50 points from 27 games, HJK on 48 points. Both sides have a goal difference of +19, while TPS are on 47 points with a goal difference of +23, courtesy of the freak 9-2 scoreline against Haka last month. IFKM are on 45 points, a goal difference of +9.

(See the Escape To Suomi Twitter this week for a chance to win an official ETS mug)

World Cup qualifying - group I for impossble?

So it begins again. Just two months after the end of a surprisingly good Euro 2012, qualifying begins for the 2014 World Cup, to be held in Brazil. This time there are nine European groups competing for those spots in the Finals, and of the fifty-three teams involved, perhaps half will have a reasonable shout of getting there. Finland is not in that half.

The Finns are in Group I, with World and European champions Spain, recent World and European champions France, and Belarus and Georgia. A five team group has it's pros and cons, but for a team which has just dropped twenty-four places in the FIFA rankings, the lack of playing two extra competitive games could prove dangerous in the long run. Coach Mixu Paatelainen has stated his goal is to produce a team which can potentially qualify for the bloated Euro 2016, but they'll do well to rack up more than a handful of points this time around.

 Paatelainen knows the size of the task

Finland's last match was an entertaining 3-3 draw with Northern Ireland in Belfast, and it wasn't fun for those fans of quality football, save for the third Finnish goal (a lovely free kick from Përparim Hetemaj). Their first qualifier is at home to a France side yet again dealing with the fall-out after a Euro 2012 which promised much, but ended up with the same in-fighting, strops and player bans.

 The Finns celebrate the third goal in Belfast

With no minnow (or is it Finland?) in the group, points against rivals are crucial, and under new manager Didier Deschamps, now may be a good time to take on the French. France lost their first qualifier for Euro 2012 at home to Belarus, while in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup they lost to Austria, and only just beat the Faroe Islands.

There have been several suggestions in recent years in support of a pre-qualifying competition amongst the lower-ranked nations, where the winners get the chance to compete with the larger nations. Clearly this was aimed to reduce the games between, for example, Spain and San Marino, but how else for the lower ranked teams to meet these opponents?

The French visit Helsinki this evening (Spain visit in September 2013), and while the odds on an upset are slim, Finland need to play the big teams in competitive games to realistically improve their FIFA rankings, especially after the Baltic Cup debacle (the summer matches against Latvia and Estonia were deemed not to count towards rankings as the fourth official was not FIFA accredited).

 Try telling Latvia that the Baltic Cup doesn't count...

The formula for working out ranking points is based as follows:

M (match result, W/L/D) x I (importance of match, eg friendly or qualifier) x T (ranking of opposing team, worked out as 200 minus their current position) x C (their confederation, eg UEFA).

A victory over France tonight would therefore be worth 3 x 2.5 x 185 x 1 = 1387.5, compared to the 99 points they earned for the draw with Northern Ireland. Results like this will be vital if they're to get decent seedings for future tournaments. Their 2012 point average is currently 125, yet the soon to disappear 2008 average is 228 so they're likely to drop much further if they get a bad start in this campaign.

The Finnish fans I speak to will be watching the France game with hope rather than expectation, and even a point will be a good start (worth 387.5 ranking points). But the group is a marathon not a sprint, and we'll see how a competitive Paatelainen side fares.